A little over a week ago, on a provincial radio show, I forecast a Stéphane Dion win on the fourth ballot.

People ask me how I knew he would win. I didn’t know he would win anymore than a weather forecaster can prophesize the weather but there were some predictors and I could feel it in my gut.

Three weeks ago, Prime Minister Harper introduced a motion which called for recognition of “Québecois as a nation within a United Canada”.

Conventional wisdom of the day suggested that Michael Ignatieff would benefit from passage of the motion because it would get him out of the bog he had created with his endorsement of a resolution from the federal wing of the Quebec Liberal Party to recognize "Quebec as a nation and seek advice as to how the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada could "officialize" that recognition”.

Ignatieff’s endorsement of the Quebec Liberal resolution unnerved a lot of his non-Quebec supporters and the Harper motion did little if anything to comfort them.

Polls had shown Dion to be the second choice for a huge number (perhaps a majority) of delegates. Going into the convention, Gerard Kennedy and Stéphane Dion together had more votes than either of the two front-runners Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae. It was widely suspected that Dion and Kennedy had some sort of agreement to support the other if and when it appeared one of them was not going to win.

There were other predictors:

• Bob Rae’s baggage as former NDP Premier of Ontario would hurt him;
• Michael Ignatieff’s early support for the invasion of Iraq and his contradictory remarks in respect to Israel’s military response to Lebanon would hurt him;
• nerve-endings from the longstanding Chrétien-Martin feud would hurt the candidates their people supported;
• there was strong desire among delegates for change and renewal; there was a substantial representation of youth among the delegates and climate change would prove to be a major floor issue, bigger than “winability”.

As to my fourth ballot prediction, that was informed luck.

Delegates were pre-committed to candidates on the first ballot. The only question was who would finish third Dion or Kennedy. Dion squeaked by with a two vote lead over Kennedy. Martha Hall-Finley moved to Dion before the second ballot and Dion increased his lead. Then Kennedy stunned the convention by seizing the role of king-maker and moving to Dion.

With Kennedy’s support, Dion leaped into first place with a significant lead over Ignatieff. Rae was gone.

The only question was whether or not Rae’s votes would stick with the establishment or follow Dion. Most of the high-profile establishment stayed with Ignatieff but their foot-soldiers went to Dion. He won by nearly 500 votes (55% to 45%). It was a paradigm shift, much like the election of Pierre Elliot Trudeau in the late sixties.

There is a New Brunswick story in Dion’s win.

Victor Boudreau, New Brunswick’s Minister of Finance moved to Dion after the first ballot. He will be a man of influence. Charlie Hubbard, MP from Miramichi was an early supporter of Dion, as was Art Doyle, long-time backroom strategist for the Liberals. They will be players.

As Co-Chair of the Convention, Dominic LeBlanc remained neutral but his fine performance at the podium, his stellar performance behind the scene and his strong links to both the English and the French wings of the party will make him an indispensable part of the Dion team.

Post-convention, pundits who had dismissed Dion’s candidacy because he had alienated Quebeckers with his “Clarity Act” (an Act to define the terms of separation if Quebec should ever vote to separate) moved quickly to diminish the importance of Dion’s win by reminding people that most Quebec delegates voted for Ignatieff or Rae. They forget that a lot of people admire Dion for standing up to the separatists. More importantly, Quebec has a long history of supporting its native sons.

Case in point: a Strategic Counsel Poll taken the day after the convention showed that 62% of Quebec respondents acknowledged that Dion was a good choice for leader as compared to the rest of Canada at 55%.

Only 9% were undecided in Quebec while 29% were undecided in the rest of Canada.

Liberal support nationally jumped to 37%

compared to the Conservatives at 31%.

In Ontario, the margin was even bigger with Liberals at 42%

and Conservatives at 32%.

Western Canada was unmoved.

It appears the West could be a bigger challenge for Dion than Quebec.

Dion has work to do before he convinces people that he should be the next Prime Minister of Canada. My brother suggests that he spend an hour a day working on his English. Not a bad idea. Dion is an excellent communicator in the French language. He needs to improve his English to make him more spontaneous, more comfortable and more passionate in English.

Language aside, Dion has a lot going for him. He has a vision for Canada that embraces economic development, social justice and sustainable development. He differs from Harper in his approach to Canada’s role in Afghanistan. He differs from Harper in his approach to the environment. He’s a strong defender of one Canada.

Climate change and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is/are quickly becoming the most important (non-military) issue in the world. It’s a proven winner in California and the new mantra for Tony Blair in England. It could be a defining issue in Canada, one that distinguishes Dion from Harper.

Our kids get it.

There is a growing community of entrepreneurs who get it.

Rona Ambrose, Minister of the Environment and Stephen Harper missed it. I suspect a majority of the voting public will get it in the next election.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and Moncton business consultant. He can be contacted at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com Atlantic Insight is a published Blog inventory of opinion articles published weekly in New Brunswick's print media as written by W.E. (Bill) Belliveau, who is a resident of Shediac, New Brunswick, and small business owner, operating his Moncton-based marketing consultancy, Bell Strategic. He can be reached by e-mail at bill.bellstrategic@nb.aibn.com