Guess who holds the balance of power this time. It’s the Bloc Quebecois.

Guess who bought into the Conservative’s promise of power transfers and money transfers to correct the fiscal imbalance. It was Quebec.

Guess who brought the Conservatives to Ottawa. It was Quebec with a little help from Ontario.

Ten seats moved from the Liberals and the Bloc to the Conservatives, enough to replace a Liberal minority with a Conservative minority.

I want to congratulate Stephen Harper and his strategists. They ran a superb campaign. They outflanked the Liberals with policy and managed to engage Quebec in the process. They even gave Harper a personality.

I also want to congratulate Paul Martin. His concession of defeat and retirement announcement was classy. It revealed the Paul Martin who has been hidden from the public for years, a sincere man with strong personal convictions and a genuine sense of humour. It also revealed a weakness in Martin who allowed his Earnscliffe commandos to overthrow a sitting prime minister and then retained them as his political strategists in government and through two elections.

So now the fun begins.

Stephen Harper has to form a government. He has to choose a cabinet that almost certainly will include some rednecks from the West, some Mike Harris cabinet ministers and a Quebec lieutenant.

Gilles Duceppe has put him on notice that he expects Harper to deliver on his promise to transfer money and powers to the provinces. Ralph Klein has served notice that he’s looking for a better deal from the federal government on health care and a realignment of federal and provincial responsibilities.

Ontario didn’t quite buy into the Harper model leaving a majority of its seats (54) with the Liberals, nor did the Country’s major cities that declined Harper groupie status – not one Conservative seat in Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver.

The first major test for Harper will be budget. Can he keep his promise to reduce the GST, expand the military, provide monthly cheques of $100 to parents with children under the age of six and balance the budget?

The second test will be in personality. Will he be able to maintain the softer, warmer persona that he presented to the electorate through 56 days of campaigning and underlined early Tuesday morning in his acceptance speech or will he revert to form? His third challenge will be to keep George W. Bush and his right wing conservatives at bay.

On the other side of the page, there is a leadership vacuum. There is no obvious successor to Paul Martin in the elected Liberal caucus, with the possible exception of Ken Dryden. Outsider John Manley has taken himself out of the race. Martin Cauchon, former Minister of Justice could resurface. Allan Rock, Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations could also resurface and then there are the new boys on the block.

Michael Ignatieff, Harvard Professor of Human Rights and newly elected Member of Parliament from Etobicoke-Lakeshore could be a challenger even though he is untested in parliament. Former Conservatives Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach could be players and then of course there is the obvious media choice Frank McKenna, Canada’s Ambassador to the United States who offered his resignation to Stephen Harper earlier this week.

I think Frank would be an excellent candidate for leadership of the Liberal Party. He’s a former provincial premier. He served as director on the boards of a dozen or more national and international companies. He’s widely connected in both Canada and the United States and he would be a breath of fresh air for a Liberal Party that has recently been preoccupied with the follies of another era.

The problem for Frank will be in finding a way to contrast himself with Stephen Harper. Harper’s past paints him as a right wing conservative. McKenna’s past paints him as a right of centre liberal. Could the contrast with Harper become sharp enough to win the day for McKenna?

The other consideration is the Liberal Party itself. Traditionally, there have been two Liberal Parties, a small “c” conservative party and a small “l” liberal party. The small “l” wing of the party has enjoyed electoral success. The small “c” wing of the party has not – witness John Turner and Paul Martin. Frank could not abandon his fiscal conservatism but he would have to offer visions that would align with the Party’s slightly left of centre traditions.

McKenna would also have to be concerned about a media crowning. Canada’s first media creation was Pierre Ellliot Trudeau. He set the standard. John Turner was virtually coronated by the media in 1984. In spring 1993, Kim Campbell had her turn and then prior to the election of 2000, national media tried to make Stockwell Day a prime minister in waiting.

In 2003, they crowned Paul Martin and then weeks later, they turned on him. Two weeks ago, a week before the federal election, the media crowned Stephen Harper as Martin’s successor. The problem with media coronations is that media eats its own. Fascination turns to attack. The honeymoon may last a bit longer for Harper because he’ll make news for the next few months.

The new Liberal leader will have to reach out to both Chrétien and Martin supporters and find a way to re-engage Quebec. To do that, he or she will have to set the Earnscliffe boys adrift. Liberals want a positive leadership race that debates visions rather than strong-arm tactics.

Stephen Harper underwent a significant makeover during the election campaign. If he’s able to sustain it, he may be around for awhile. His acceptance speech was impressive, if you ignored what he was saying. He looked and sounded prime ministerial.

To prevail, he’ll have to hold his rednecks in check and create compromise between his western conservative ideology and eastern Canadian liberalism.

His University of Alberta brain trust may have trouble with that concept.