Over the last few months and particularly in the last few weeks, I have been concerned with Quebec’s apparent disengagement from Canada and more recently from this Federal election.

Recent polls suggest that Quebec voters are beginning to engage in this election. Support for the Conservatives in Quebec has jumped from single digit numbers to something ranging between 20 and 30%. That’s not enough to win more than a few seats but it’s enough to start a groundswell in a province that traditionally votes in a block.

What’s pushing the Conservative numbers? Some would say it’s the sponsorship issue. There is truth to that speculation but I would suggest there is more.

In my view, Quebecers are seriously looking at Stephen Harper.

• He has promised a smaller, weaker federal government.
• He has promised to transfer federal tax dollars to the provinces and he has promised Quebec international recognition and participation in matters affecting trade, culture and the environment.
• He has promised that provinces will have the right to opt out of new cost-sharing programs with compensation.

If Harper wins a majority, expect the largest downloading of federal powers to the provinces we have ever seen. The “winning conditions” for the incremental separation of Quebec (and Alberta) from Canada will be in place.

The irony is that if Quebec chooses to embrace Stephen Harper, the Province could end up holding the balance of power in a Conservative majority government. That seems like an absurd proposition three days before the election but if the idea jells over the weekend, forget the polls.

For those of you, who think I might be smoking something, consider this.

On Thursday of this week, two days ago, tracking polls showed the Conservative vote in Quebec at 28%, enough to project five Conservative seats in that province. Now what if that number jumped by 10 percentage points by Monday and the increase came primarily from the Bloc. That could put another 25 seats into play for the Conservatives.

Based on current seat projections for the rest of Canada, 25 Quebec seats could be enough to give the Conservatives a small majority.

Picture this on election night – the possibility of a leader with no experience in government, beholden to his deeply conservative roots and a Quebec caucus that has bought into Harper’s vision of a decentralized and diminished Canada. Now that is scary!

This is the guy who told the media on Tuesday not to worry if he’s elected because the Conservatives would be held in check by a civil service beholden to the Liberals, a judiciary that has been appointed by Liberals and a Senate controlled by the Liberals. In other words, those of us who are concerned about the impact of a Harper government should be consoled by the fact that people who worked with and/or were appointed by Liberals would hold him in check.

Harper impugns the integrity of these institutions and the professionals who work within them. He also implies that we should be concerned that left unchecked, he would pursue a series of actions that would not be popular with Canadians.

The implication is real because this guy is a total chameleon.

• He’s an angry young man who appears to have been on Valium for the last six weeks.
• This is the guy who for years wanted to kill off ACOA but now recognizes its value.
• This is the guy who at the founding convention of the Reform Party in 1987 declared that “centralized handout economics” is part of the rot that’s eating away at confederation.
• This man is a right wing conservative in the mould of George Bush.

The values of his University of Alberta brain trust have been characterized as closer to those of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney than mainstream Canadians. His dream is to shrink government, dramatically reduce its role in public life, hack away at federal transfers and privatize as much of government as possible, including the delivery of healthcare services.

"I don't think my fundamental beliefs have changed in a decade," he said last week. His plans for a new Canada are visible in his platform.

Harper wants a U.S.-style two-chamber Parliament, in which the Commons would have a more powerful legislative rival in an elected Senate. And, like U.S. conservatives, he favours a less progressive Supreme Court, one that would not, for example, affirm same-sex marriage rights.

This is the guy who would replace Canada’s Early Learning and Childcare program with tax payments to parents. This is the guy who would scarp the Kyoto Accord. This is the guy who would cancel a national agreement with Aboriginal peoples. This is a guy who believes that people should be left to fend for themselves, no matter what their circumstance.

Historically, the Liberals have stood for progressive, activist government and social policy. They gave us Medicare, the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security. Martin honoured that tradition by introducing the first new social programs in a generation, a $5 billion child-care program, a major investment in healthcare and the legalization of same-sex marriage. Martin deserves credit for 12 years of sound fiscal stewardship, which rescued Canada from a $43 billion Conservative deficit and put the Country into a surplus position that allows today’s investments in social programs and tax-cuts.

Stephen Harper’s incrementalism, if allowed to take hold would profoundly change the nature of Canada.

It would provide Quebec with defacto nationhood and a form of sovereignty association. Don’t be surprised if Quebec wakes up to this prospect but don’t be surprised either if Ontario puts on the brakes and stops Harper in his tracks.

Fasten your seat-belts folks, we could be in for a rough ride on Monday night.