Atlantic Insight

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Atlantic Insight, by southeast New Brunswick's W.E.(Bill) Belliveau who analyzes and comments on matters of public policy and the social and economic decisions taken, by all levels of government from local to global. Atlantic Insight Blog is a commentary on current affairs and changes in the marketplaces and/or in the business world. The impact of policy, decisions and changes are explored for their impact on the citizens of Atlantic Canada. You are invited to add your comments.


Saturday, September 24, 2005

NB Fuel & Energyy: The price of panic

Last Monday, I purchased gasoline in Shediac for $1.39 a litre.

On Thursday, I was in Toronto and gasoline was actually selling for $2.11 a litre and lineups were a block long waiting to fill up. I’m told there were similar happenings in Moncton and elsewhere in the Maritimes.

Yesterday morning gasoline prices were back down to $1.14 a litre in Shediac.

The irony is that $1.14 suddenly seemed to be a bargain and a $1.14 is 50¢ a litre more than it was a year ago. Maybe these price scares are intended to precondition us for the realities of future pricing regimes.

That aside, it turns out this week’s price fluctuations were a form of mass hysteria and panic based on little more than speculation and rumour. The lineups and the price-spikes were fueled by a fear that an approaching hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will severely damage the offshore oil industry, shut down refineries on land and reduce the supply of gasoline across North America. That may or may not prove to be the case but by the time you read this column, the picture may be a little clearer.

It begs the question. If fear of the unknown can spark such gas-pump panic, how vulnerable are we to real disaster, whether natural or terrorist-induced? My guess is that Canadians are totally unprepared for disaster. We watch it on television and think it could never happen to us. It can and one day it will. It’s time to take the idea seriously.

Earlier this week, our provincial politicians were clamouring for the Federal Government to provide some relief for rising oil prices. There was talk of rebates and subsidies. Others talked of price controls. In my view it’s ridiculous to consider any of the above because the Government of Canada has no control over global pricing or global supplies of oil. Subsidy would be an endless sinkhole. Rebates would be no different.

The one thing that our governments could do is exempt heating oil and electricity from federal and provincial sales taxes because both are essential to life in a Canadian winter. They could also reduce their take on gasoline sales taxes but my guess is that the oil companies would quickly fill the void.

There is one other thing that could be done but it would be very controversial. Alberta exports most of its oil at global prices. If the price of oil in the United States rises to $80 a barrel, the price in Canada follows suit and Alberta reaps the benefit. If Canadian oil was priced for Canadians at $60 a barrel in an $80 environment, Alberta would be penalized to the tune of $20 a barrel.

Is that fair? Dare we ask Alberta to wear the burden?

Former Prime Minister Trudeau tried it in the seventies and the backlash was fast and furious. A recent poll conducted for the Globe & Mail and CTV suggests that times may have changed. When Albertans were asked about the principle of sharing resource royalties, 47 % of Albertans felt that at least some of the royalties should be shared nationally while 13% thought they should be shared equally.

If the numbers are accurate and truly reflect Albertan’s feelings then Ralph Klein would seem to be out of step with popular feelings in his Province when he tells Canadians to keep their hands off Alberta’s oil.

Logic might tell you that Canadians would be willing to share a price benefit or protect against a price-shock but common sense would suggest that regional differences and regional tensions are so significant in this Country that it would never happen unless we were facing real disaster. Webster defines disaster as a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss or destruction, a sudden or great misfortune or failure.

Gasoline shortages would be inconvenient but not disastrous unless prolonged and major. $2.00 a litre for gasoline would be very expensive compared to what we have been used to paying but it would not be disastrous unless it fueled an inflationary spiral that ended in a collapse of our economy.

A disaster is what could happen to Texas and Louisiana in the next few hours and days. I bet that people in those states would be delighted to pay $2.00 or even $3.00 a litre for gasoline if it would protect them from disaster. Europeans have been paying those prices for years and they’re still functioning, thank you very much.

My point is that we Canadians and particularly we Maritimers spend too much time whining about hardship and demanding subsidy. Our biggest enemy is ourselves. We have the people and the resources to control our destiny. We have the ability to protect ourselves from most disasters. Let’s do so and while we are doing it, let’s be thankful for what we have.

Two things were made apparent by this week’s gasoline panic: one, we are lacking an emergency communications system in Canada. There were no gas shortages. There were no industry price hikes. The shortages were created by a public that responded to rumour and speculation about the potential for future shortages. The price spikes in Toronto were real but they were just individual dealer responses to the age old supply and demand equation.

Gasoline lineups create the impression of shortage and permit the unscrupulous to raise prices. A quick response from someone in the know should have warned consumers that supply was not in danger and would not be in danger for the foreseeable future. That would have eased the pressure at the pumps and made it impossible to price gouge.

The second thing that becomes apparent from the panic is that Canadians are not prepared for disaster. We have no contingency plans. We have no evacuation plans. We have no way to deal with either disaster or hysteria.

We are extremely vulnerable.

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